Ohio State Installed as Big Ten Favorite at +185 Despite Replacing Eight Defensive Starters

Ohio State opened as the heavy favorite to win the 2026 Big Ten Championship, with FanDuel listing the Buckeyes at +185 and a fan poll released on Friday showing 42 percent of respondents nationwide picking them to claim the conference title in December. Oregon checked in second at +185 in sentiment and 38 percent in the fan survey, with defending national champion Indiana at 13 percent and USC at 3 percent.

The vote of confidence comes despite significant uncertainty surrounding Ryan Day's roster. Analysts noted on Friday that Ohio State must replace eight defensive starters heading into the fall, bringing in an entirely new group of linebackers and secondary defenders to face some of the most potent offenses in the country. The concern, according to national observers, is that breakdowns in communication and tackling early in the season could force the Buckeyes into high-scoring shootouts rather than games controlled through field position.

Schedule Offers Little Margin for Error

Compounding the defensive rebuild is one of the most demanding road slates in recent program history. Ohio State faces away games in Austin against Texas, in Iowa City against Iowa, and in Bloomington against Indiana — a schedule analysts say leaves no room for a slow start. CBS Sports analyst Brad Crawford predicted the Buckeyes could drop three regular-season games, to Texas, Indiana, and Oregon, which would push them into the College Football Playoff as a No. 8 seed hosting LSU in Columbus. CBS Sports analyst John Talty took the opposite view, projecting quarterback Julian Sayin to win the Heisman Trophy and lead Ohio State to a Big Ten Championship Game rematch against Indiana.

Sayin enters the season surrounded by elite skill players, including wide receiver Jeremiah Smith and a veteran offensive line. Running backs Isaiah West and Bo Jackson are expected to carry much of the ground-game load. Smith, coming off back-to-back matchups against Texas in which he was largely neutralized, expressed confidence on Friday that new offensive coordinator Arthur Smith's system will utilize him on the move and increase his opportunities after the catch.

Ohio State and Texas are scheduled to meet in Week 2, a rematch after the Buckeyes defeated the Longhorns in Columbus last season to open the year. Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian, speaking on a podcast with Josh Chambers, attributed his team's previous losses partly to mental fatigue accumulated over long seasons, comments that drew criticism from Ohio State observers who noted the Buckeyes were themselves under enormous pressure entering the College Football Playoff after a regular-season loss to Michigan.

I felt like the year we played Ohio State in the Cotton Bowl, we were tired, and not necessarily physically tired. We were mentally fatigued as well. That's a long season. We had so many big games. So I think managing it this time around, how we manage their energy level, is as important as how we manage their legs and the physicality.

— Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian

How quickly Ohio State's rebuilt defense coheres will largely determine whether the Buckeyes secure a first-round playoff bye or enter the postseason in must-win territory come December.