Wisconsin enters Lambeau Field as 20.5-point underdog against No. 4 Notre Dame

Notre Dame and Wisconsin are set to meet at Lambeau Field in the 2026 Shamrock Series opener, with the Fighting Irish installed as heavy favorites and preview coverage painting a bleak picture for Luke Fickell's rebuilding Badgers. Notre Dame enters the contest ranked No. 4 in the nation, while Wisconsin — carrying over 40 new players on its roster — is a 20.5-point underdog heading into what would need to be one of the biggest upsets in recent college football history.

ESPN Analytics has given Wisconsin just a 5.7% chance of victory, with Notre Dame holding a 94.3% win probability. On the betting markets, DraftKings Sportsbook shows over 66 percent of bettors backing the Irish to cover the near-three-touchdown spread, with Wisconsin projected to score fewer than two touchdowns in the game. Notre Dame had previously been listed as roughly a three-touchdown favorite, consistent with the ESPN projection.

Injury and depth-chart uncertainty cloud Wisconsin's preparation

Notre Dame released its depth chart and an availability report ahead of the game, while Wisconsin declined to do either, offering little transparency about its personnel. What Fickell did confirm is that transfer running back Abu Sama, who spent his first three seasons at Iowa State and rushed for 1,933 yards and 13 touchdowns there, will start in the backfield. Sama, a 5-foot-11, 211-pound senior, had just one 100-yard rushing performance last season and brings limited receiving production — 20 catches across three years — making his usage against one of the country's top defenses a significant question mark.

Irish quarterback C.J. Carr, considered a Heisman contender entering the season, leads a Notre Dame offense that will be without star running backs Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price. Head coach Marcus Freeman and several members of his staff — including offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock, wide receivers coach Mike Brown, and quarterbacks coach Gino Guidugli — are former Fickell associates, making the matchup a notable coaching reunion. Colton Joseph is set to start at quarterback for Wisconsin.

On the defensive side of the ball, Notre Dame boasts preseason All-American cornerback Leonard Moore, and Fickell indicated he does not plan to avoid throwing to Moore's side of the field, preferring not to limit his offense to one direction. That approach has drawn skepticism given Wisconsin's inexperienced quarterback and thin wide receiver room. Notre Dame's defense is expected to represent one of the toughest early-season tests in the country, and analysts have suggested Moore could have a standout performance if Wisconsin commits to testing him through the air.

The Shamrock Series contest is scheduled for Sunday evening in primetime. For Wisconsin, bowl eligibility — not a national title run — is the program's stated target for a season in clear transition, while Notre Dame enters as a legitimate national championship contender.