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Sports prediction market guides

Prediction markets let you trade on games the way you used to bet them at a sportsbook. These guides explain how they work, how Kalshi and Novig differ, what you pay, and how to trade college football, with charts built from real exchange data.

Sports Index Research

Prediction market basics

How sports prediction markets work, for people who know sportsbooks.
Sports Index ResearchOct 23 What are sports prediction markets? Sports prediction markets sell contracts on games that pay $1 if you are right. How they work, what prices mean and how they differ from sportsbooks. Sports Index ResearchOct 23 Prediction markets vs. sportsbooks Prediction markets vs. sportsbooks: who sets the price, fees vs. vig, limits, selling early and legality, compared side by side for sports bettors. Sports Index ResearchOct 23 How to read prediction market odds A prediction market price in cents is an implied probability. Convert any price to American odds and payout with our table, converter and examples. Sports Index ResearchOct 23 Odds converter: probability to American odds Convert a prediction market price or probability to American, decimal and fractional odds, with Kalshi and Novig fees, plus a full 1¢ to 99¢ table. Sports Index ResearchOct 23 Limit orders vs. market orders A market order fills now at the best price; a limit order waits for yours. How each works on Kalshi and Novig, and what happens at kickoff. Sports Index ResearchOct 23 Volume, liquidity and open interest What volume, open interest and liquidity mean on Kalshi and Novig, why they decide the price you get, and when sports markets are busiest. Sports Index ResearchOct 23 Closing line value (CLV) Closing line value compares your price with the last price before kickoff. Why CLV beats win rate as a test of a bet, and how to track it. Sports Index ResearchOct 23 Parlays and combos How parlays work on Kalshi (Combos) and Novig: pricing, same-game rules, fees and pushes, and why parlays are nearly half of Novig volume. Sports Index ResearchOct 23 Prediction market fees: Kalshi vs. Novig Kalshi vs. Novig fees: trading fees by price, maker vs. taker, parlays, deposits and withdrawals, with a fee chart and a worked $100 example. Sports Index ResearchOct 23 Line shopping between Kalshi and Novig How often Kalshi and Novig price the same game differently, what a better price is worth after fees, and how to shop both before you trade. Sports Index ResearchOct 23 Settlement rules: overtime, ties, postponements What happens to Kalshi and Novig game contracts in overtime, ties, postponements, forfeits and suspended games, and how fast winning contracts pay out. Sports Index ResearchOct 23 Where are sports prediction markets legal? Novig serves every state but Arizona, Nevada and Michigan (21+). Kalshi is 18+, with state access in court. Where you can trade, October 2026. Sports Index ResearchOct 23 Responsible trading Prediction markets are real money. How to set a budget, size positions, avoid chasing losses, use exchange limits, and where to get help.

College football

Trading college football on Kalshi and Novig.
Sports Index ResearchOct 23 College football prediction markets: the complete guide Trading college football on Kalshi and Novig: markets, prices, fees, volume, strategies and tools, with weekly data from the 2026 season. Sports Index ResearchOct 23 College football betting strategies, tested Which college football betting systems work on prediction markets? Rule-based strategies graded on real Kalshi and Novig prices.

Kalshi guides

How Kalshi works for sports, its fees and its markets.
Sports Index ResearchOct 23 How Kalshi works for sports How to trade sports on Kalshi: Yes and No contracts, prices as probabilities, quick and limit orders, selling early, settlement and deposits. Sports Index ResearchOct 23 Kalshi fees explained Kalshi charges a trading fee that peaks at 50¢, plus maker fees on some sports markets. Fees by price, deposit and withdrawal costs, and how to pay less. Sports Index ResearchOct 23 Kalshi college football Kalshi lists FBS games with moneyline, spread and total markets plus Heisman and playoff futures. What is offered, how it settles and how to trade it.

Novig guides

How Novig works, its markets and its leagues.
Sports Index ResearchOct 23 How Novig works Novig is a CFTC-regulated sports exchange with no-vig prices. How take and make orders, parlays, selling early, fees and eligibility work. Sports Index ResearchOct 23 Novig college football Novig college football: moneylines, spreads, totals, first halves and team totals. What traders trade, when volume peaks and how to get better prices. Sports Index ResearchOct 23 Novig NFL Novig NFL markets: moneylines, spreads, totals, first halves, team totals and player props. What NFL traders trade and when, from public data. Sports Index ResearchOct 23 Novig vs. Kalshi Novig vs. Kalshi compared for sports: fees, markets, parlays, age and state availability, selling early and settlement. Which exchange suits which bettor.

Sports Index publishes research and paper picks; it is not a sportsbook or an exchange and takes no bets. Trading on prediction markets risks real money. If gambling is a problem for you or someone you know, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.