Betting Roundup: CFB Week 8 Preview
Week 8's college football slate on Novig and Kalshi: where the money is and every bet our strategies are lining up.
Welcome to the Sports Index Betting Roundup. This is the CFB Week 8 Preview where we analyze college football games with the most interesting markets on 
Novig and 
Kalshi for Week 8.
As a reminder (or if you're new here): We pair systematic, rule-based strategies with an analysis of what we see on the field (we actually watch the games) to help you make more informed bets. Let's dive in.
As you all probably know, five of the top seven teams lost last Saturday, and (interestingly) the market's surest bets were the ones that fell:
- No. 1
Georgia lost 27–24 at home to Auburn as a 91% favorite. - No. 7
Texas (81%) lost at home to Florida by the same score. - No. 2
Notre Dame (78%) fell 28–24 at BYU. - No. 6
Alabama (74%) was routed 26–10 at Tennessee.
The only top-seven loss the market saw coming was No. 5 
Indiana, a 43% underdog at home to Ohio State.
Novig vs. its final margin. Favorites at 70% and up won 7 of 11; the four below 70% all won.
Sports Index
NovigFavorites at 70% or higher to win averaged an 82% chance to win pre-game but won only 7 of 11 (64%). Below that line, the four ranked favorites priced between 52% and 62% all won. So across all 15 ranked favorites the market was close on average (a 76% average chance, an 11–4 record), but every miss came at the top of the board, and that's exactly where this week's slate is crowded.
So is that a pattern or just a crazy Saturday? Well, I dont have a crystal ball, but it's fair not to read too much into one of the wildest college football weekends in recent memory, and 11 games is a small sample.
However, it's reason enough to take a closer look at this week's heavy favorites. Thirteen ranked teams are currently 70% or better to win on Novig:
Novig, ranked team (left) vs. opponent (right).
Sports Index
NovigEven if every one of these prices is right, some of these teams will lose. The 13 average an 80% chance to win, which works out to two or three losses in a typical week, and about a 95% chance that at least one goes down.
The top of the list is mostly at home: Miami, SMU, Northwestern and UCLA are all 86% or better in their own stadiums. The four closest to the line, Indiana, LSU, BYU and Iowa (70–72%), are all on the road in conference games.
Prices are each team's chance to win, the middle of the Novig market unless noted, as of Oct 20, 5:10 PM ET. They'll move before kickoff.
To win: this week's moneyline breakdowns
Every week we take a few of the slate's biggest moneyline games and go deep: what Novig, Kalshi, the sportsbooks and the models say about each team's chance to win, then what we think after watching the teams. This week: three of the heavy favorites from that 70%+ list and one ranked underdog.
01
Texas A&M at #13 Alabama
What the numbers say: Alabama 84% to win
- Everyone roughly agrees on this one. Alabama is 84% on Novig and 83.5% on Kalshi. At the sportsbooks it's around −600 on the moneyline, about 82–83% once you strip out the books' cut, and ESPN's FPI has it at 83.5%.
- The market did react to the Tennessee loss though: Alabama was −800 at some books before that game, close to a 90% chance, and the sportsbook spread has come down from 15.5 to 13.5 since (per VegasInsider). The spread is a different bet, but its move tells you the market expects a closer game than it did a week ago.
- The models still like Alabama comfortably. SP+, FEI, Massey and Sagarin all project an Alabama win by 11 to 17 points (Bama Hammer). The advanced numbers say why: Alabama still ranks 10th nationally in adjusted EPA per play and 4th in rushing success rate, while Texas A&M's offense ranks 70th in success rate (SI). A&M scored 21 against Kentucky and 6 each against LSU and Missouri.
- The case against is Alabama's passing game. Alabama ranks 127th in EPA per pass, and Keelon Russell has been held under 200 passing yards in both losses, including 147 at Tennessee. A&M's defense is good enough to make that matter: 17th in adjusted EPA per play and 12th on third and fourth downs. If Alabama can't run, it may not have another way to pull away.
What our gut says: Alabama wins
Keelon Russell is a dawg, and one bad afternoon in Knoxville doesn't change that: he's at 1,746 yards on 9.1 a throw, with 12 touchdowns and four picks. Alabama still scores 39.3 points a game (12th in the FBS), and the defense is a turnover machine with 16 takeaways, 10 interceptions and four pick-sixes. A&M's offense ranks 97th in total yards and 103rd in passing, and Marcel Reed is completing under 56% of his throws. That's not an offense built to come back from two scores down in Tuscaloosa.
02#6 Indiana at 
Michigan
What the numbers say: Indiana 72% to win
- Indiana has the better team: 6–1, and its only loss was 19–15 to No. 4 Ohio State. Michigan has scored 21 points or fewer in five of its six games.
- Michigan keeps it close: five of its six games were decided by seven points or fewer. And Indiana's offense has cooled, from 44 points a game in its first five to 20 and 15 in its last two.
- The read: 72% is a lot of trust in a road favorite whose offense has stalled, against a team that keeps every game close.
What our gut says: Indiana wins
Michigan's defense looks scary on paper, but it hasn't seen anything like this. Its non-conference opponents couldn't move the ball (Western Michigan averages 322.3 yards a game, and Oklahoma's 304.6 ranks 120th nationally), and its Big Ten slate hasn't been much better: Iowa (403.2) is 11th in the conference, Penn State (384.1) 13th and Minnesota (341.3) 16th. Indiana puts up 449.3 yards a game at 7.4 a play.
Josh Hoover hasn't thrown a pick all year (18 touchdowns, zero interceptions), Turbo Richard is ripping off 7.4 yards a carry, and Charlie Becker and Nick Marsh both average better than 17 yards a catch. On the other side, Bryce Underwood has six interceptions in six games. The last two weeks were a dip rather than a decline: this is still the most explosive offense Michigan will have faced.
03#18 
LSU at 
Auburn
What the numbers say: LSU 71% to win
- LSU has the résumé: 5–2, with wins of 35–6 over Texas A&M and 31–0 over Mississippi State. Both losses came to ranked SEC teams, by 8 and by 1.
- Auburn is riding a high: it just beat No. 1 Georgia 27–24 as a 9% underdog, and four of its five games against Power 4 opponents were decided by six points or fewer.
- The read: Auburn keeps games close, and 71% leaves plenty of room for another one to go its way.
What our gut says: LSU wins
Auburn's offense goes as Byrum Brown's legs go, and that runs straight into LSU's biggest strength. LSU gives up just 88.1 rushing yards a game at 2.8 a carry, and it already erased one running quarterback this year: Texas A&M's Marcel Reed finished with minus-13 rushing yards on 10 carries. Princewill Umanmielen (8 sacks) and Deuce Geralds (5) live in the backfield.
Make Brown beat you with his arm and you like your chances: he has eight touchdown passes and seven interceptions. Meanwhile Sam Leavitt (1,785 yards, 14 touchdowns) is the best quarterback on the field. Winning in Athens was huge for Auburn. Doing it again a week later against this defense is a big ask.
04#11 
Tennessee at 
South Carolina
What the numbers say: South Carolina 55% to win
- The market has turned on the Vols: South Carolina went from 45% on Sunday to 55% now.
- Tennessee has the record: 6–1, coming off a 26–10 win over Alabama, and its only loss was 20–17 to Texas. South Carolina is 3–3 and lost to Alabama by 31.
- South Carolina has the setup: it's at home and coming off a bye, and Tennessee has scored between 17 and 26 points in all four of its SEC games.
- The read: the most surprising price on the board. A 6–1 team at 45% against a .500 team means the market sees something the records don't.
What our gut says: South Carolina wins
Williams-Brice has been a house of horrors for the Vols: they've won just two of their last eight there, including the 63–38 beatdown in 2022 that knocked them out of the playoff race. And this offense has a ceiling. Tennessee hasn't topped 26 points against an SEC team because it lives on the ground: 217.1 rushing yards a game (19th) and only 188.0 through the air (110th). Desean Bishop is a problem (837 yards, 10 touchdowns), but South Carolina's run defense is 25th in the country at 103.7 a game.
Shut Bishop down and Tennessee has to win through the air, which it hasn't shown it can. Throw in LaNorris Sellers with fresh legs off a bye (411 rushing yards at 6.1 a carry) and we're taking the Gamecocks.
Our free strategies this week
Our strategies are simple rules we run the same way every week. They aren't built to find the single sharpest edge on the board. The point is a systematic read on which kinds of bets (each with a rule you can explain in one line) are working this season and lately, so you can lean on that when you make your own picks.
Each one enters at the Novig price shortly before kickoff and is graded on the final score: $50 a bet on a $1,000 paper account. No gut calls and no second-guessing. Three of them are free for everyone:
- Big home dogs (17–10, +$326) takes the home team when it's a 14-point underdog or bigger. This week it's on two FCS home dogs: The Citadel +20.5 against Tennessee Tech and Hampton +27.5 against Monmouth.
- High total unders (15–17, −$118) takes the under when the total is 60 or more. This week it's on Under 61.5 in North Texas at Navy, Under 61.5 in San Diego State at Colorado State and Under 62.5 in Stetson at Morehead State.
- Low total overs (18–18, −$56) takes the over when the total is under 45. This week it's on Over 41.5 in #6 Indiana at Michigan, Over 41.5 in #15 Iowa at Minnesota, Over 44.5 in Air Force at Wyoming and 9 more.
Big home dogs is the best free strategy so far: 17–10 and up $326 on 27 bets, a 24% return, and 8–4 over the last three weeks. It only bets on home teams that are underdogs by 14 points or more, so some weeks it's quiet. Its paper account on settled bets:
Pro members get every strategy's record and picks for the week, which ones are hot, and where they disagree with each other and with us. All that below.