High total overs
FREETake the over when the total is 60 or more. One unit per game at the Novig price. The other side: High total unders →
Sports Index
0 following
- Season PnL
- +$106
- Bets
- 40
- Record
- 21–18
- ROI
- +5.4%
- CLV
- −0.7¢
- Max drawdown
- −$250
- Streak
- L2
- Open
- 1
High total overs
Account value
Charting
Chart settingsKept in this browser
Measure
Time axis
Game days in order, with the breaks between them shortened so the games keep the width.
Show on the chart
Gain/loss shadingGreen above where it started, red below
No-game breaksHatch the stretches with no games between game days
Week linesA divider where each week starts
Open positionsHow many bets were open, under the chart
Trade markersWhere each bet was placed, and where it settled
SmoothingZoomed out, nearby points share their last value. Off draws every point.
Placed
Open
Won
Lost
BetsHow it's calculated
Week 8
−100%
South Alabama at Marshall
LOST
−100%
Stetson at Morehead State
OPEN−3%
North Texas at Navy
QUALIFIES
Southern Utah at Idaho
QUALIFIES
Portland State at Idaho State
QUALIFIES
San Diego State at Colorado State
QUALIFIES
Week 7
+24%
Colorado State at Texas State
WON
+106%
Cincinnati at West Virginia
WON
+98%
Idaho at Montana
WON
+79%
Idaho State at Weber State
LOST
−100%
South Dakota at Murray State
WON
+94%
Montana State at Eastern Washington
WON
+96%
Portland State at Northern Arizona
LOST
−100%
Central Arkansas at Tarleton State
WON
+96%
Arkansas State at Southern Miss
LOST
−100%
Oklahoma State at Houston
WON
+96%
UC Davis at Southern Utah
LOST
−100%
Week 6
−2%
South Alabama at Arkansas State
WON
+96%
Utah Tech at Portland State
LOST
−100%
Cal Poly at Idaho State
LOST
−100%
Tarleton State at Austin Peay
WON
+96%
Week 5
+31%
Alabama at Mississippi State
WON
+96%
Davidson at San Diego
WON
+96%
Purdue at Illinois
LOST
−100%
Youngstown State at Southern Illinois
LOST
−100%
Oregon State at Colorado State
WON
+96%
Texas Southern at Florida Atlantic
WON
+96%
Tennessee Tech at Western Carolina
LOST
−100%
Chicago State at Tarleton State
WON
+96%
Weber State at Cal Poly
WON
+96%
All bets
| Week | Game | Pick | Total | Result | Entry | CLV | Return | Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 8 | South Alabama at Marshall |
Over 62.5 | 33 | LOST | 59¢ | +1¢ | −100% | −1.00u |
| Week 8 | Stetson at Morehead State |
Over 62.5 | OPEN | 44¢ | — | −3% | −0.03u | |
| Week 8 | North Texas at Navy |
Over 61.5 | QUALIFIES | 47¢ | — | |||
| Week 8 | Southern Utah at Idaho |
Over 66.5 | QUALIFIES | 51¢ | — | |||
| Week 8 | Portland State at Idaho State |
Over 62.5 | QUALIFIES | 50¢ | — | |||
| Week 8 | San Diego State at Colorado State |
Over 61.5 | QUALIFIES | 44¢ | — | |||
| Week 7 | Colorado State at Texas State |
Over 70.5 | 93 | WON | 48¢ | −1¢ | +106% | +1.06u |
| Week 7 | Cincinnati at West Virginia |
Over 63.5 | 87 | WON | 50¢ | +2¢ | +98% | +0.98u |
| Week 7 | Idaho at Montana |
Over 62.5 | 77 | WON | 56¢ | 0¢ | +79% | +0.79u |
| Week 7 | Idaho State at Weber State |
Over 63.5 | 47 | LOST | 50¢ | 0¢ | −100% | −1.00u |
| Week 7 | South Dakota at Murray State |
Over 60.5 | 68 | WON | 52¢ | −3¢ | +94% | +0.94u |
| Week 7 | Montana State at Eastern Washington |
Over 64.5 | 76 | WON | 51¢ | −3¢ | +96% | +0.96u |
| Week 7 | Portland State at Northern Arizona |
Over 63.5 | 63 | LOST | 51¢ | — | −100% | −1.00u |
| Week 7 | Central Arkansas at Tarleton State |
Over 61.5 | 84 | WON | 51¢ | — | +96% | +0.96u |
| Week 7 | Arkansas State at Southern Miss |
Over 61.5 | 36 | LOST | 51¢ | — | −100% | −1.00u |
| Week 7 | Oklahoma State at Houston |
Over 62.5 | 67 | WON | 51¢ | −2¢ | +96% | +0.96u |
| Week 7 | UC Davis at Southern Utah |
Over 63.5 | 55 | LOST | 52¢ | −1¢ | −100% | −1.00u |
| Week 6 | South Alabama at Arkansas State |
Over 60.5 | 105 | WON | 51¢ | — | +96% | +0.96u |
| Week 6 | Utah Tech at Portland State |
Over 60.5 | 44 | LOST | 51¢ | — | −100% | −1.00u |
| Week 6 | Cal Poly at Idaho State |
Over 63.5 | 49 | LOST | 51¢ | — | −100% | −1.00u |
| Week 6 | Tarleton State at Austin Peay |
Over 60.5 | 72 | WON | 51¢ | — | +96% | +0.96u |
| Week 5 | Alabama at Mississippi State |
Over 61.5 | 79 | WON | 51¢ | — | +96% | +0.96u |
| Week 5 | Davidson at San Diego |
Over 62.5 | 77 | WON | 51¢ | — | +96% | +0.96u |
| Week 5 | Purdue at Illinois |
Over 61.5 | 41 | LOST | 51¢ | — | −100% | −1.00u |
| Week 5 | Youngstown State at Southern Illinois |
Over 64.5 | 44 | LOST | 51¢ | — | −100% | −1.00u |
| Week 5 | Oregon State at Colorado State |
Over 62.5 | 82 | WON | 51¢ | — | +96% | +0.96u |
| Week 5 | Texas Southern at Florida Atlantic |
Over 62.5 | 76 | WON | 51¢ | — | +96% | +0.96u |
| Week 5 | Tennessee Tech at Western Carolina |
Over 64.5 | 64 | LOST | 51¢ | — | −100% | −1.00u |
| Week 5 | Chicago State at Tarleton State |
Over 62.5 | 77 | WON | 51¢ | — | +96% | +0.96u |
| Week 5 | Weber State at Cal Poly |
Over 66.5 | 76 | WON | 51¢ | — | +96% | +0.96u |
| Week 3 | North Texas at Texas State |
Over 62.5 | 84 | WON | 51¢ | — | +96% | +0.96u |
| Week 3 |  Presbyterian at Western Carolina |
Over 65.5 | 72 | WON | 51¢ | — | +96% | +0.96u |
| Week 3 |  Florida International at Florida Atlantic |
Over 62.5 | 26 | LOST | 51¢ | — | −100% | −1.00u |
| Week 3 |  Youngstown State at South Dakota State |
Over 60.5 | 47 | LOST | 51¢ | — | −100% | −1.00u |
| Week 3 |  Morehead State at Western Illinois |
Over 64.5 | 61 | LOST | 51¢ | — | −100% | −1.00u |
| Week 3 |  South Dakota at Boise State |
Over 61.5 | 62 | WON | 51¢ | — | +96% | +0.96u |
| Week 1 |  Idaho at Utah |
Over 60.5 | 80 | WON | 51¢ | — | +96% | +0.96u |
| Week 1 |  Youngstown State at Kentucky |
Over 61.5 | 58 | LOST | 51¢ | — | −100% | −1.00u |
| Week 1 |  Drake at Montana |
Over 60.5 | 55 | LOST | 51¢ | — | −100% | −1.00u |
| Week 1 |   Furman at Tennessee |
Over 66.5 | 65 | LOST | 51¢ | — | −100% | −1.00u |
| Week 1 |  Western Carolina at Campbell |
Over 68.5 | 0 | LOST | 51¢ | — | −100% | −1.00u |
| Week 1 |  Chicago State at UT Martin |
Over 61.5 | 49 | LOST | 51¢ | — | −100% | −1.00u |
| Week 1 |   VMI at Virginia Tech |
Over 61.5 | 76 | WON | 51¢ | — | +96% | +0.96u |
| Week 1 |  Utah Tech at BYU |
Over 61.5 | 70 | WON | 51¢ | — | +96% | +0.96u |
The other side
Every graded bet taken the other way, in hindsight- Record
- 18–21
- P&L
- −$94
- ROI
- −4.8%
- Bets
- 39
Not part of the record. It's tracked as its own strategy, High total unders →. Estimated at 1 − price: these bets were placed before the other side's price was recorded.
What stands out
Groups with 3+ graded betsSmall samples. Each one opens its card below.
Close calls
Final against the line4 of 39 bets landed within 3 points of the number
Missed by 70The numberBeat by 70
WonLostInside 3 points: 1 won, 3 lost
By total
TotalBetsRecordWin rateROIUnits
Under 45
—
—
—
—
45–52.5
—
—
—
—
53–59.5
—
—
—
—
60 and up
39
21–18
54%
+5%
+2.11
Grouped by the total the bet took.
By entry price
Entry priceBetsRecordWin rateROIUnits
Under 45¢
—
—
—
—
45–49¢
1
1–0
100%
+106%
+1.06
50–54¢
36
19–17
53%
+4%
+1.26
55¢ and up
2
1–1
50%
−10%
−0.21
Grouped by the Novig price paid at entry.
By kickoff
KickoffBetsRecordWin rateROIUnits
Saturday before 3 PM
4
3–1
75%
+48%
+1.90
Saturday 3 to 7 PM
16
6–10
38%
−28%
−4.43
Saturday 7 PM or later
15
9–6
60%
+18%
+2.65
Not a Saturday
4
3–1
75%
+50%
+1.98
Grouped by kickoff, Eastern time.
By closing line
Closing lineBetsRecordWin rateROIUnits
Beat the close
2
1–1
50%
−1%
−0.02
Even with the close
2
1–1
50%
−10%
−0.21
Worse than the close
5
4–1
80%
+59%
+2.93
No close
30
15–15
50%
−2%
−0.59
Grouped by the entry price against Novig's last price before kickoff.
By conference
ConferenceBetsRecordWin rateROIUnits
Pac-12
4
4–0
100%
+98%
+3.94
Big 12
4
4–0
100%
+96%
+3.86
ACC
1
1–0
100%
+96%
+0.96
American
3
2–1
67%
+31%
+0.92
Big Ten
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
Conference USA
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
SEC
3
1–2
33%
−35%
−1.04
Sun Belt
3
1–2
33%
−35%
−1.04
A game counts once for each conference in it.
By team
TeamBetsRecordWin rateROIUnits
Tarleton State
3
3–0
100%
+96%
+2.88
Colorado State
2
2–0
100%
+101%
+2.02
Texas State
2
2–0
100%
+101%
+2.02
South Dakota
2
2–0
100%
+95%
+1.90
Idaho
2
2–0
100%
+88%
+1.75
Cincinnati
1
1–0
100%
+98%
+0.98
West Virginia
1
1–0
100%
+98%
+0.98
Alabama
1
1–0
100%
+96%
+0.96
Austin Peay
1
1–0
100%
+96%
+0.96
BYU
1
1–0
100%
+96%
+0.96
Boise State
1
1–0
100%
+96%
+0.96
Central Arkansas
1
1–0
100%
+96%
+0.96
Davidson
1
1–0
100%
+96%
+0.96
Eastern Washington
1
1–0
100%
+96%
+0.96
Houston
1
1–0
100%
+96%
+0.96
Mississippi State
1
1–0
100%
+96%
+0.96
Montana State
1
1–0
100%
+96%
+0.96
North Texas
1
1–0
100%
+96%
+0.96
Oklahoma State
1
1–0
100%
+96%
+0.96
Oregon State
1
1–0
100%
+96%
+0.96
Presbyterian
1
1–0
100%
+96%
+0.96
San Diego
1
1–0
100%
+96%
+0.96
Texas Southern
1
1–0
100%
+96%
+0.96
Utah
1
1–0
100%
+96%
+0.96
VMI
1
1–0
100%
+96%
+0.96
Virginia Tech
1
1–0
100%
+96%
+0.96
Murray State
1
1–0
100%
+94%
+0.94
Arkansas State
2
1–1
50%
−2%
−0.04
Cal Poly
2
1–1
50%
−2%
−0.04
Chicago State
2
1–1
50%
−2%
−0.04
Florida Atlantic
2
1–1
50%
−2%
−0.04
South Alabama
2
1–1
50%
−2%
−0.04
Utah Tech
2
1–1
50%
−2%
−0.04
Weber State
2
1–1
50%
−2%
−0.04
Montana
2
1–1
50%
−10%
−0.21
Campbell
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
Drake
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
Florida International
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
Furman
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
Illinois
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
Kentucky
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
Marshall
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
Morehead State
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
Northern Arizona
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
Purdue
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
South Dakota State
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
Southern Illinois
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
Southern Miss
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
Southern Utah
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
Tennessee
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
Tennessee Tech
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
UC Davis
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
UT Martin
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
Western Illinois
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
Western Carolina
3
1–2
33%
−35%
−1.04
Idaho State
2
0–2
0%
−100%
−2.00
Portland State
2
0–2
0%
−100%
−2.00
Youngstown State
3
0–3
0%
−100%
−3.00
A game counts for both teams in it.
How it bets
- 1
Qualifies
The Novig total is 60 or more, any game.
- 2
Bet
Over.
Full-game total, Novig main line.
- 3
Placed
60 minutes before kickoff, at the Novig ask price.
The rule is checked again then. A game that no longer qualifies gets no bet.
- 4
Stake
1 unit, flat. A win pays (1 − price) ÷ price units.
- 5
Graded
Final score from the game page. A game not finished within 7 days voids.
No bet when
Novig has no offer on that side, or its prices are more than 45 minutes old.
League
College football, on Novig.
History
Every record is a paper simulation from the start of the season: the rule run on the price history Sports Index keeps (Novig's lines, sportsbook lines where Novig had none, with asks estimated where Novig's weren't recorded) and graded on the final score.
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