High total unders
FREETake the under when the total is 60 or more. One unit per game at the Novig price. The other side: High total overs →
Sports Index
0 following
- Season PnL
- −$118
- Bets
- 33
- Record
- 15–17
- ROI
- −7.4%
- CLV
- −0.1¢
- Max drawdown
- −$470
- Streak
- W2
- Open
- 1
High total unders
Account value
Charting
Chart settingsKept in this browser
Measure
Time axis
Game days in order, with the breaks between them shortened so the games keep the width.
Show on the chart
Gain/loss shadingGreen above where it started, red below
No-game breaksHatch the stretches with no games between game days
Week linesA divider where each week starts
Open positionsHow many bets were open, under the chart
Trade markersWhere each bet was placed, and where it settled
SmoothingZoomed out, nearby points share their last value. Off draws every point.
Placed
Open
Won
Lost
BetsHow it's calculated
Week 8
+138%
South Alabama at Marshall
WON
+138%
Stetson at Morehead State
OPEN−1%
North Texas at Navy
QUALIFIES
Southern Utah at Idaho
QUALIFIES
Portland State at Idaho State
QUALIFIES
San Diego State at Colorado State
QUALIFIES
Week 7
−50%
Colorado State at Texas State
LOST
−100%
Cincinnati at West Virginia
LOST
−100%
Oklahoma State at Houston
LOST
−100%
UC Davis at Southern Utah
WON
+100%
Week 6
−3%
South Alabama at Arkansas State
LOST
−100%
Utah Tech at Portland State
WON
+94%
Cal Poly at Idaho State
WON
+94%
Tarleton State at Austin Peay
LOST
−100%
Week 5
−35%
Alabama at Mississippi State
LOST
−100%
Davidson at San Diego
LOST
−100%
Purdue at Illinois
WON
+94%
Youngstown State at Southern Illinois
WON
+94%
Oregon State at Colorado State
LOST
−100%
Texas Southern at Florida Atlantic
LOST
−100%
Tennessee Tech at Western Carolina
WON
+94%
Chicago State at Tarleton State
LOST
−100%
Weber State at Cal Poly
LOST
−100%
All bets
| Week | Game | Pick | Total | Result | Entry | CLV | Return | Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 8 | South Alabama at Marshall |
Under 62.5 | 33 | WON | 42¢ | −1¢ | +138% | +1.38u |
| Week 8 | Stetson at Morehead State |
Under 62.5 | OPEN | 58¢ | — | −1% | −0.01u | |
| Week 8 | North Texas at Navy |
Under 61.5 | QUALIFIES | 54¢ | — | |||
| Week 8 | Southern Utah at Idaho |
Under 66.5 | QUALIFIES | 53¢ | — | |||
| Week 8 | Portland State at Idaho State |
Under 62.5 | QUALIFIES | 52¢ | — | |||
| Week 8 | San Diego State at Colorado State |
Under 61.5 | QUALIFIES | 57¢ | — | |||
| Week 7 | Colorado State at Texas State |
Under 70.5 | 93 | LOST | 52¢ | +1¢ | −100% | −1.00u |
| Week 7 | Cincinnati at West Virginia |
Under 63.5 | 87 | LOST | 49¢ | −1¢ | −100% | −1.00u |
| Week 7 | Oklahoma State at Houston |
Under 62.5 | 67 | LOST | 52¢ | 0¢ | −100% | −1.00u |
| Week 7 | UC Davis at Southern Utah |
Under 63.5 | 55 | WON | 50¢ | −1¢ | +100% | +1.00u |
| Week 6 | South Alabama at Arkansas State |
Under 60.5 | 105 | LOST | 52¢ | — | −100% | −1.00u |
| Week 6 | Utah Tech at Portland State |
Under 60.5 | 44 | WON | 52¢ | — | +94% | +0.94u |
| Week 6 | Cal Poly at Idaho State |
Under 63.5 | 49 | WON | 52¢ | — | +94% | +0.94u |
| Week 6 | Tarleton State at Austin Peay |
Under 60.5 | 72 | LOST | 52¢ | — | −100% | −1.00u |
| Week 5 | Alabama at Mississippi State |
Under 61.5 | 79 | LOST | 52¢ | — | −100% | −1.00u |
| Week 5 | Davidson at San Diego |
Under 62.5 | 77 | LOST | 52¢ | — | −100% | −1.00u |
| Week 5 | Purdue at Illinois |
Under 61.5 | 41 | WON | 52¢ | — | +94% | +0.94u |
| Week 5 | Youngstown State at Southern Illinois |
Under 64.5 | 44 | WON | 52¢ | — | +94% | +0.94u |
| Week 5 | Oregon State at Colorado State |
Under 62.5 | 82 | LOST | 52¢ | — | −100% | −1.00u |
| Week 5 | Texas Southern at Florida Atlantic |
Under 62.5 | 76 | LOST | 52¢ | — | −100% | −1.00u |
| Week 5 | Tennessee Tech at Western Carolina |
Under 64.5 | 64 | WON | 52¢ | — | +94% | +0.94u |
| Week 5 | Chicago State at Tarleton State |
Under 62.5 | 77 | LOST | 52¢ | — | −100% | −1.00u |
| Week 5 | Weber State at Cal Poly |
Under 66.5 | 76 | LOST | 52¢ | — | −100% | −1.00u |
| Week 3 | North Texas at Texas State |
Under 62.5 | 84 | LOST | 52¢ | — | −100% | −1.00u |
| Week 3 |  Presbyterian at Western Carolina |
Under 65.5 | 72 | LOST | 52¢ | — | −100% | −1.00u |
| Week 3 |  Florida International at Florida Atlantic |
Under 62.5 | 26 | WON | 52¢ | — | +94% | +0.94u |
| Week 3 |  Youngstown State at South Dakota State |
Under 60.5 | 47 | WON | 52¢ | — | +94% | +0.94u |
| Week 3 |  Morehead State at Western Illinois |
Under 64.5 | 61 | WON | 52¢ | — | +94% | +0.94u |
| Week 3 |   South Dakota at Boise State |
Under 61.5 | 62 | LOST | 52¢ | +2¢ | −100% | −1.00u |
| Week 1 |  Idaho at Utah |
Under 60.5 | 80 | LOST | 52¢ | — | −100% | −1.00u |
| Week 1 |  Youngstown State at Kentucky |
Under 61.5 | 58 | WON | 52¢ | — | +94% | +0.94u |
| Week 1 |   Drake at Montana |
Under 60.5 | 55 | WON | 52¢ | — | +94% | +0.94u |
| Week 1 |   Furman at Tennessee |
Under 66.5 | 65 | WON | 52¢ | — | +94% | +0.94u |
| Week 1 |  Western Carolina at Campbell |
Under 68.5 | 0 | WON | 52¢ | — | +94% | +0.94u |
| Week 1 |  Chicago State at UT Martin |
Under 61.5 | 49 | WON | 52¢ | — | +94% | +0.94u |
| Week 1 |   VMI at Virginia Tech |
Under 61.5 | 76 | LOST | 52¢ | — | −100% | −1.00u |
| Week 1 |  Utah Tech at BYU |
Under 61.5 | 70 | LOST | 52¢ | — | −100% | −1.00u |
The other side
Every graded bet taken the other way, in hindsight- Record
- 17–15
- P&L
- +$148
- ROI
- +9.3%
- Bets
- 32
Not part of the record. It's tracked as its own strategy, High total overs →. Estimated at 1 − price: these bets were placed before the other side's price was recorded.
What stands out
Groups with 3+ graded bets
TEAM
+94%
Youngstown State
CLOSING LINE
+46%
Worse than the close
CONFERENCE
−100%
Big 12
CONFERENCE
−100%
Pac-12
Small samples. Each one opens its card below.
Close calls
Final against the line3 of 32 bets landed within 3 points of the number
Missed by 70The numberBeat by 70
WonLostInside 3 points: 2 won, 1 lost
By total
TotalBetsRecordWin rateROIUnits
Under 45
—
—
—
—
45–52.5
—
—
—
—
53–59.5
—
—
—
—
60 and up
32
15–17
47%
−7%
−2.37
Grouped by the total the bet took.
By entry price
Entry priceBetsRecordWin rateROIUnits
Under 45¢
1
1–0
100%
+138%
+1.38
45–49¢
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
50–54¢
30
14–16
47%
−9%
−2.75
55¢ and up
—
—
—
—
Grouped by the Novig price paid at entry.
By kickoff
KickoffBetsRecordWin rateROIUnits
Saturday before 3 PM
4
1–3
25%
−52%
−2.06
Saturday 3 to 7 PM
13
9–4
69%
+34%
+4.48
Saturday 7 PM or later
11
4–7
36%
−29%
−3.17
Not a Saturday
4
1–3
25%
−40%
−1.62
Grouped by kickoff, Eastern time.
By closing line
Closing lineBetsRecordWin rateROIUnits
Beat the close
2
0–2
0%
−100%
−2.00
Even with the close
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
Worse than the close
3
2–1
67%
+46%
+1.38
No close
26
13–13
50%
−3%
−0.75
Grouped by the entry price against Novig's last price before kickoff.
By conference
ConferenceBetsRecordWin rateROIUnits
Big Ten
1
1–0
100%
+94%
+0.94
Conference USA
1
1–0
100%
+94%
+0.94
SEC
3
2–1
67%
+29%
+0.88
Sun Belt
2
1–1
50%
+19%
+0.38
ACC
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
American
3
1–2
33%
−35%
−1.06
Big 12
4
0–4
0%
−100%
−4.00
Pac-12
4
0–4
0%
−100%
−4.00
A game counts once for each conference in it.
By team
TeamBetsRecordWin rateROIUnits
Youngstown State
3
3–0
100%
+94%
+2.83
Marshall
1
1–0
100%
+138%
+1.38
Southern Utah
1
1–0
100%
+100%
+1.00
UC Davis
1
1–0
100%
+100%
+1.00
Campbell
1
1–0
100%
+94%
+0.94
Drake
1
1–0
100%
+94%
+0.94
Florida International
1
1–0
100%
+94%
+0.94
Furman
1
1–0
100%
+94%
+0.94
Idaho State
1
1–0
100%
+94%
+0.94
Illinois
1
1–0
100%
+94%
+0.94
Kentucky
1
1–0
100%
+94%
+0.94
Montana
1
1–0
100%
+94%
+0.94
Morehead State
1
1–0
100%
+94%
+0.94
Portland State
1
1–0
100%
+94%
+0.94
Purdue
1
1–0
100%
+94%
+0.94
South Dakota State
1
1–0
100%
+94%
+0.94
Southern Illinois
1
1–0
100%
+94%
+0.94
Tennessee
1
1–0
100%
+94%
+0.94
Tennessee Tech
1
1–0
100%
+94%
+0.94
UT Martin
1
1–0
100%
+94%
+0.94
Western Illinois
1
1–0
100%
+94%
+0.94
Western Carolina
3
2–1
67%
+29%
+0.88
South Alabama
2
1–1
50%
+19%
+0.38
Cal Poly
2
1–1
50%
−3%
−0.06
Chicago State
2
1–1
50%
−3%
−0.06
Florida Atlantic
2
1–1
50%
−3%
−0.06
Utah Tech
2
1–1
50%
−3%
−0.06
Alabama
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
Arkansas State
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
Austin Peay
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
BYU
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
Boise State
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
Cincinnati
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
Davidson
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
Houston
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
Idaho
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
Mississippi State
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
North Texas
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
Oklahoma State
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
Oregon State
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
Presbyterian
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
San Diego
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
South Dakota
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
Texas Southern
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
Utah
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
VMI
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
Virginia Tech
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
Weber State
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
West Virginia
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
Colorado State
2
0–2
0%
−100%
−2.00
Tarleton State
2
0–2
0%
−100%
−2.00
Texas State
2
0–2
0%
−100%
−2.00
A game counts for both teams in it.
How it bets
- 1
Qualifies
The Novig total is 60 or more, any game.
- 2
Bet
Under.
Full-game total, Novig main line.
- 3
Placed
60 minutes before kickoff, at the Novig ask price.
The rule is checked again then. A game that no longer qualifies gets no bet.
- 4
Stake
1 unit, flat. A win pays (1 − price) ÷ price units.
- 5
Graded
Final score from the game page. A game not finished within 7 days voids.
No bet when
Novig has no offer on that side, or its prices are more than 45 minutes old.
League
College football, on Novig.
History
Every record is a paper simulation from the start of the season: the rule run on the price history Sports Index keeps (Novig's lines, sportsbook lines where Novig had none, with asks estimated where Novig's weren't recorded) and graded on the final score.
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