Low total unders
FREETake the under when the total is under 45. One unit per game at the Novig price. The other side: Low total overs →
Sports Index
0 following
- Season PnL
- −$59
- Bets
- 46
- Record
- 19–20
- ROI
- −3.0%
- CLV
- −1.1¢
- Max drawdown
- −$312
- Streak
- W3
- Open
- 7
Low total unders
Account value
Charting
Chart settingsKept in this browser
Measure
Time axis
Game days in order, with the breaks between them shortened so the games keep the width.
Show on the chart
Gain/loss shadingGreen above where it started, red below
No-game breaksHatch the stretches with no games between game days
Week linesA divider where each week starts
Open positionsHow many bets were open, under the chart
Trade markersWhere each bet was placed, and where it settled
SmoothingZoomed out, nearby points share their last value. Off draws every point.
Placed
Open
Won
Lost
BetsHow it's calculated
Week 8
+125%
Air Force at Wyoming
WON
+125%
Indiana at Michigan
OPEN+101%
UAlbany at Rhode Island
OPEN0%
Stonehill at Long Island University
OPEN−2%
Akron at Kent State
OPEN+38%
Miami (OH) at Central Michigan
OPEN−4%
Samford at Furman
OPEN−2%
Colgate at Richmond
OPEN−1%
Princeton at Harvard
QUALIFIES
Bowling Green at Buffalo
QUALIFIES
Charleston Southern at Tennessee State
QUALIFIES
Iowa at Minnesota
QUALIFIES
Houston Christian at Lamar
QUALIFIES
UT Rio Grande Valley at Central Arkansas
QUALIFIES
North Dakota State at New Mexico
QUALIFIES
Week 7
+2%
Florida International at Jacksonville State
LOST
−100%
Pittsburgh at Boston College
LOST
−100%
Hampton at Sacred Heart
LOST
−100%
Brown at Princeton
WON
+92%
Massachusetts at Buffalo
LOST
−100%
Bryant at Maine
WON
+108%
Merrimack at Dartmouth
LOST
−100%
Georgetown at Colgate
WON
+100%
Western Michigan at Central Michigan
WON
+100%
Penn State at Michigan
WON
+104%
Northern Illinois at Wyoming
LOST
−100%
Nevada at North Dakota State
LOST
−100%
Wisconsin at UCLA
WON
+94%
New Mexico at Hawai'i
WON
+122%
Week 6
−22%
Columbia at Marist
LOST
−100%
Iowa at Washington
LOST
−100%
Washington State at Utah State
WON
+94%
Texas at Oklahoma
LOST
−100%
Furman at Tennessee Tech
WON
+94%
Week 5
+46%
Michigan at Minnesota
WON
+94%
Wyoming at North Dakota State
WON
+94%
Bowling Green at Miami (OH)
LOST
−100%
Sacred Heart at Maine
WON
+94%
North Carolina A&T at Bryant
LOST
−100%
Gardner-Webb at Charleston Southern
WON
+94%
Colgate at Harvard
WON
+94%
Fresno State at Washington State
WON
+94%
Week 3
−57%
Bowling Green at Iowa State
LOST
−100%
North Carolina at Clemson
LOST
−100%
Eastern Michigan at Wisconsin
LOST
−100%
Wyoming at Central Michigan
WON
+94%
Princeton at Bryant
WON
+94%
VMI at Davidson
LOST
−100%
Morgan State at Towson
LOST
−100%
Wofford at Chattanooga
LOST
−100%
Western Michigan at Rice
LOST
−100%
All bets
| Week | Game | Pick | Total | Result | Entry | CLV | Return | Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 8 | Air Force at Wyoming |
Under 44.5 | 42 | WON | 44¢ | 0¢ | +125% | +1.25u |
| Week 8 | Indiana at Michigan |
Under 41.5 | OPEN | 46¢ | — | +101% | +1.01u | |
| Week 8 | UAlbany at Rhode Island |
Under 43.5 | OPEN | 50¢ | — | 0% | +0.00u | |
| Week 8 | Stonehill at Long Island University |
Under 37.5 | OPEN | 52¢ | — | −2% | −0.02u | |
| Week 8 | Akron at Kent State |
Under 44.5 | OPEN | 42¢ | — | +38% | +0.38u | |
| Week 8 | Miami (OH) at Central Michigan |
Under 40.5 | OPEN | 50¢ | — | −4% | −0.04u | |
| Week 8 | Samford at Furman |
Under 42.5 | OPEN | 48¢ | — | −2% | −0.01u | |
| Week 8 | Colgate at Richmond |
Under 41.5 | OPEN | 50¢ | — | −1% | −0.01u | |
| Week 8 | Princeton at Harvard |
Under 39.5 | QUALIFIES | 48¢ | — | |||
| Week 8 | Bowling Green at Buffalo |
Under 44.5 | QUALIFIES | 51¢ | — | |||
| Week 8 | Charleston Southern at Tennessee State |
Under 42.5 | QUALIFIES | 54¢ | — | |||
| Week 8 | Iowa at Minnesota |
Under 41.5 | QUALIFIES | 54¢ | — | |||
| Week 8 | Houston Christian at Lamar |
Under 43.5 | QUALIFIES | 44¢ | — | |||
| Week 8 | UT Rio Grande Valley at Central Arkansas |
Under 44.5 | QUALIFIES | 46¢ | — | |||
| Week 8 | North Dakota State at New Mexico |
Under 42.5 | QUALIFIES | 60¢ | — | |||
| Week 7 | Florida International at Jacksonville State |
Under 43.5 | 51 | LOST | 52¢ | — | −100% | −1.00u |
| Week 7 | Pittsburgh at Boston College |
Under 42.5 | 48 | LOST | 50¢ | −3¢ | −100% | −1.00u |
| Week 7 | Hampton at Sacred Heart |
Under 44.5 | 56 | LOST | 50¢ | +2¢ | −100% | −1.00u |
| Week 7 | Brown at Princeton |
Under 39.5 | 26 | WON | 52¢ | −5¢ | +92% | +0.92u |
| Week 7 | Massachusetts at Buffalo |
Under 41.5 | 43 | LOST | 48¢ | −2¢ | −100% | −1.00u |
| Week 7 | Bryant at Maine |
Under 44.5 | 31 | WON | 48¢ | −1¢ | +108% | +1.08u |
| Week 7 | Merrimack at Dartmouth |
Under 43.5 | 48 | LOST | 48¢ | −1¢ | −100% | −1.00u |
| Week 7 | Georgetown at Colgate |
Under 44.5 | 44 | WON | 50¢ | 0¢ | +100% | +1.00u |
| Week 7 | Western Michigan at Central Michigan |
Under 42.5 | 35 | WON | 50¢ | 0¢ | +100% | +1.00u |
| Week 7 | Penn State at Michigan |
Under 42.5 | 39 | WON | 49¢ | 0¢ | +104% | +1.04u |
| Week 7 | Northern Illinois at Wyoming |
Under 40.5 | 64 | LOST | 44¢ | 0¢ | −100% | −1.00u |
| Week 7 | Nevada at North Dakota State |
Under 43 | 48 | LOST | 52¢ | — | −100% | −1.00u |
| Week 7 | Wisconsin at UCLA |
Under 42.5 | 24 | WON | 52¢ | −4¢ | +94% | +0.94u |
| Week 7 | New Mexico at Hawai'i |
Under 44.5 | 31 | WON | 45¢ | 0¢ | +122% | +1.22u |
| Week 6 | Columbia at Marist |
Under 43.5 | 69 | LOST | 52¢ | — | −100% | −1.00u |
| Week 6 | Iowa at Washington |
Under 40.5 | 65 | LOST | 52¢ | — | −100% | −1.00u |
| Week 6 | Washington State at Utah State |
Under 44 | 33 | WON | 52¢ | — | +94% | +0.94u |
| Week 6 | Texas at Oklahoma |
Under 41.5 | 51 | LOST | 52¢ | — | −100% | −1.00u |
| Week 6 | Furman at Tennessee Tech |
Under 44.5 | 35 | WON | 52¢ | — | +94% | +0.94u |
| Week 5 | Michigan at Minnesota |
Under 43.5 | 34 | WON | 52¢ | — | +94% | +0.94u |
| Week 5 | Wyoming at North Dakota State |
Under 44.5 | 28 | WON | 52¢ | — | +94% | +0.94u |
| Week 5 | Bowling Green at Miami (OH) |
Under 41.5 | 44 | LOST | 52¢ | — | −100% | −1.00u |
| Week 5 | Sacred Heart at Maine |
Under 44.5 | 40 | WON | 52¢ | — | +94% | +0.94u |
| Week 5 | North Carolina A&T at Bryant |
Under 44.5 | 61 | LOST | 52¢ | — | −100% | −1.00u |
| Week 5 | Gardner-Webb at Charleston Southern |
Under 44.5 | 22 | WON | 52¢ | — | +94% | +0.94u |
| Week 5 | Colgate at Harvard |
Under 37.5 | 37 | WON | 52¢ | — | +94% | +0.94u |
| Week 5 | Fresno State at Washington State |
Under 44.5 | 32 | WON | 52¢ | — | +94% | +0.94u |
| Week 3 | Bowling Green at Iowa State |
Under 43.5 | 62 | LOST | 52¢ | — | −100% | −1.00u |
| Week 3 | North Carolina at Clemson |
Under 44.5 | 48 | LOST | 52¢ | — | −100% | −1.00u |
| Week 3 | Eastern Michigan at Wisconsin |
Under 44.5 | 64 | LOST | 52¢ | — | −100% | −1.00u |
| Week 3 | Wyoming at Central Michigan |
Under 40.5 | 34 | WON | 52¢ | — | +94% | +0.94u |
| Week 3 | Princeton at Bryant |
Under 44.5 | 35 | WON | 52¢ | — | +94% | +0.94u |
| Week 3 | VMI at Davidson |
Under 42.5 | 51 | LOST | 52¢ | — | −100% | −1.00u |
| Week 3 | Morgan State at Towson |
Under 44.5 | 67 | LOST | 52¢ | — | −100% | −1.00u |
| Week 3 | Wofford at Chattanooga |
Under 42.5 | 48 | LOST | 52¢ | — | −100% | −1.00u |
| Week 3 | Western Michigan at Rice |
Under 43.5 | 49 | LOST | 52¢ | — | −100% | −1.00u |
| Week 1 | Northern Illinois at Iowa |
Under 44.5 | 40 | WON | 52¢ | — | +94% | +0.94u |
| Week 1 |  Richmond at Howard |
Under 43.5 | 49 | LOST | 52¢ | — | −100% | −1.00u |
The other side
Every graded bet taken the other way, in hindsight- Record
- 20–19
- P&L
- +$81
- ROI
- +4.2%
- Bets
- 39
Not part of the record. It's tracked as its own strategy, Low total overs →. 1 graded at the other side's recorded Novig price, 38 estimated at 1 − price.
What stands out
Groups with 3+ graded bets
CLOSING LINE
+75%
Even with the close
TEAM
+53%
Wyoming
CONFERENCE
−44%
MAC
KICKOFF
−16%
Not a Saturday
Small samples. Each one opens its card below.
Close calls
Final against the line5 of 39 bets landed within 3 points of the number
Missed by 30The numberBeat by 30
WonLostInside 3 points: 3 won, 2 lost
By total
TotalBetsRecordWin rateROIUnits
Under 45
39
19–20
49%
−3%
−1.18
45–52.5
—
—
—
—
53–59.5
—
—
—
—
60 and up
—
—
—
—
Grouped by the total the bet took.
By entry price
Entry priceBetsRecordWin rateROIUnits
Under 45¢
2
1–1
50%
+12%
+0.25
45–49¢
5
3–2
60%
+27%
+1.35
50–54¢
32
15–17
47%
−9%
−2.77
55¢ and up
—
—
—
—
Grouped by the Novig price paid at entry.
By kickoff
KickoffBetsRecordWin rateROIUnits
Saturday before 3 PM
15
7–8
47%
−8%
−1.17
Saturday 3 to 7 PM
13
6–7
46%
−10%
−1.25
Saturday 7 PM or later
6
4–2
67%
+34%
+2.05
Not a Saturday
5
2–3
40%
−16%
−0.81
Grouped by kickoff, Eastern time.
By closing line
Closing lineBetsRecordWin rateROIUnits
Beat the close
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
Even with the close
6
5–1
83%
+75%
+4.51
Worse than the close
6
3–3
50%
−1%
−0.05
No close
26
11–15
42%
−18%
−4.64
Grouped by the entry price against Novig's last price before kickoff.
By conference
ConferenceBetsRecordWin rateROIUnits
Mountain West
7
5–2
71%
+47%
+3.29
Pac-12
2
2–0
100%
+94%
+1.88
Big Ten
6
4–2
67%
+31%
+1.87
American
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
Big 12
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
Conference USA
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
SEC
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
ACC
2
0–2
0%
−100%
−2.00
MAC
7
2–5
29%
−44%
−3.06
A game counts once for each conference in it.
By team
TeamBetsRecordWin rateROIUnits
Wyoming
4
3–1
75%
+53%
+2.13
Maine
2
2–0
100%
+101%
+2.02
Michigan
2
2–0
100%
+99%
+1.98
Central Michigan
2
2–0
100%
+97%
+1.94
Colgate
2
2–0
100%
+97%
+1.94
Washington State
2
2–0
100%
+94%
+1.88
Princeton
2
2–0
100%
+93%
+1.86
Air Force
1
1–0
100%
+125%
+1.25
Hawai'i
1
1–0
100%
+122%
+1.22
New Mexico
1
1–0
100%
+122%
+1.22
Penn State
1
1–0
100%
+104%
+1.04
Bryant
3
2–1
67%
+34%
+1.02
Georgetown
1
1–0
100%
+100%
+1.00
Charleston Southern
1
1–0
100%
+94%
+0.94
Fresno State
1
1–0
100%
+94%
+0.94
Furman
1
1–0
100%
+94%
+0.94
Gardner-Webb
1
1–0
100%
+94%
+0.94
Harvard
1
1–0
100%
+94%
+0.94
Minnesota
1
1–0
100%
+94%
+0.94
Tennessee Tech
1
1–0
100%
+94%
+0.94
UCLA
1
1–0
100%
+94%
+0.94
Utah State
1
1–0
100%
+94%
+0.94
Brown
1
1–0
100%
+92%
+0.92
Western Michigan
2
1–1
50%
0%
+0.00
Iowa
2
1–1
50%
−3%
−0.06
North Dakota State
2
1–1
50%
−3%
−0.06
Northern Illinois
2
1–1
50%
−3%
−0.06
Sacred Heart
2
1–1
50%
−3%
−0.06
Wisconsin
2
1–1
50%
−3%
−0.06
Boston College
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
Buffalo
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
Chattanooga
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
Clemson
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
Columbia
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
Dartmouth
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
Davidson
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
Eastern Michigan
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
Florida International
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
Hampton
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
Howard
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
Iowa State
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
Jacksonville State
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
Marist
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
Massachusetts
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
Merrimack
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
Miami (OH)
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
Morgan State
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
Nevada
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
North Carolina
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
North Carolina A&T
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
Oklahoma
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
Pittsburgh
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
Rice
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
Richmond
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
Texas
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
Towson
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
VMI
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
Washington
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
Wofford
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
Bowling Green
2
0–2
0%
−100%
−2.00
A game counts for both teams in it.
How it bets
- 1
Qualifies
The Novig total is under 45, any game.
- 2
Bet
Under.
Full-game total, Novig main line.
- 3
Placed
60 minutes before kickoff, at the Novig ask price.
The rule is checked again then. A game that no longer qualifies gets no bet.
- 4
Stake
1 unit, flat. A win pays (1 − price) ÷ price units.
- 5
Graded
Final score from the game page. A game not finished within 7 days voids.
No bet when
Novig has no offer on that side, or its prices are more than 45 minutes old.
League
College football, on Novig.
History
Every record is a paper simulation from the start of the season: the rule run on the price history Sports Index keeps (Novig's lines, sportsbook lines where Novig had none, with asks estimated where Novig's weren't recorded) and graded on the final score.
No posts about Low total unders yet. Start the thread.
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