NFL home underdogs
FREETake the home team against the spread whenever it is the underdog. One unit per game at the Novig price. The other side: NFL road favorites →
Sports Index
0 following
- Season PnL
- +$77
- Bets
- 37
- Record
- 19–16–1
- ROI
- +4.4%
- CLV
- −0.8¢
- Max drawdown
- −$215
- Streak
- W2
- Open
- 1
NFL home underdogs
Account value
Charting
Chart settingsKept in this browser
Measure
Time axis
Game days in order, with the breaks between them shortened so the games keep the width.
Show on the chart
Gain/loss shadingGreen above where it started, red below
No-game breaksHatch the stretches with no games between game days
Week linesA divider where each week starts
Open positionsHow many bets were open, under the chart
Trade markersWhere each bet was placed, and where it settled
SmoothingZoomed out, nearby points share their last value. Off draws every point.
Placed
Open
Won
Lost
BetsHow it's calculated
Week 8
UPCOMING
New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins
QUALIFIES
Week 7
UPCOMING
Pittsburgh Steelers at New Orleans Saints
OPEN−8%
Cleveland Browns at Tennessee Titans
QUALIFIES
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens
QUALIFIES
San Francisco 49ers at Atlanta Falcons
QUALIFIES
Denver Broncos at Arizona Cardinals
QUALIFIES
Los Angeles Rams at Las Vegas Raiders
QUALIFIES
Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles
QUALIFIES
Week 6
−4%
Seattle Seahawks at Denver Broncos
WON
+92%
Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns
WON
+92%
Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia Eagles
LOST
−100%
Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons
LOST
−100%
New Orleans Saints at New York Giants
LOST
−100%
Pittsburgh Steelers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
LOST
−100%
Buffalo Bills at Las Vegas Raiders
WON
+92%
Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers
WON
+92%
Week 5
−36%
Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins
WON
+92%
Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans
LOST
−100%
Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints
LOST
−100%
Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers
WON
+92%
Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers
LOST
−100%
Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals
LOST
−100%
Week 4
+37%
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns
WON
+92%
Indianapolis Colts at Washington Commanders
LOST
−100%
Arizona Cardinals at New York Giants
WON
+92%
Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
LOST
−100%
Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles
WON
+92%
Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders
WON
+92%
Detroit Lions at Carolina Panthers
WON
+92%
Week 3
+60%
Carolina Panthers at Cleveland Browns
WON
+92%
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers
WON
+92%
Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts
WON
+92%
Kansas City Chiefs at Miami Dolphins
LOST
−100%
Seattle Seahawks at Washington Commanders
WON
+92%
Baltimore Ravens at Dallas Cowboys
PUSH
0%
Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears
WON
+92%
All bets
| Week | Game | Pick | Margin | Result | Entry | CLV | Return | Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 8 | New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins |
Miami Dolphins +8.5 | QUALIFIES | 52¢ | — | |||
| Week 7 | Pittsburgh Steelers at New Orleans Saints |
New Orleans Saints +3.5 | OPEN | 56¢ | — | −8% | −0.08u | |
| Week 7 | Cleveland Browns at Tennessee Titans |
Tennessee Titans +1.5 | QUALIFIES | 49¢ | — | |||
| Week 7 | Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens |
Baltimore Ravens +1.5 | QUALIFIES | 44¢ | — | |||
| Week 7 | San Francisco 49ers at Atlanta Falcons |
Atlanta Falcons +2.5 | QUALIFIES | 49¢ | — | |||
| Week 7 | Denver Broncos at Arizona Cardinals |
Arizona Cardinals +4.5 | QUALIFIES | 50¢ | — | |||
| Week 7 | Los Angeles Rams at Las Vegas Raiders |
Las Vegas Raiders +3.5 | QUALIFIES | 52¢ | — | |||
| Week 7 | Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles |
Philadelphia Eagles +4.5 | QUALIFIES | 50¢ | — | |||
| Week 6 | Seattle Seahawks at Denver Broncos |
Denver Broncos +3 | Won by 3 | WON | 52¢ | — | +92% | +0.92u |
| Week 6 | Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns |
Cleveland Browns +3 | Won by 3 | WON | 52¢ | — | +92% | +0.92u |
| Week 6 | Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia Eagles |
Philadelphia Eagles +3 | Lost by 11 | LOST | 52¢ | — | −100% | −1.00u |
| Week 6 | Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons |
Atlanta Falcons +1.5 | Lost by 8 | LOST | 52¢ | — | −100% | −1.00u |
| Week 6 | New Orleans Saints at New York Giants |
New York Giants +1.5 | Lost by 7 | LOST | 52¢ | — | −100% | −1.00u |
| Week 6 | Pittsburgh Steelers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +2.5 | Lost by 7 | LOST | 52¢ | — | −100% | −1.00u |
| Week 6 | Buffalo Bills at Las Vegas Raiders |
Las Vegas Raiders +5.5 | Lost by 3 | WON | 52¢ | — | +92% | +0.92u |
| Week 6 | Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers |
Green Bay Packers +1.5 | Won by 10 | WON | 52¢ | — | +92% | +0.92u |
| Week 5 | Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins |
Miami Dolphins +7.5 | Lost by 7 | WON | 52¢ | — | +92% | +0.92u |
| Week 5 | Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans |
Tennessee Titans +6.5 | Lost by 23 | LOST | 52¢ | — | −100% | −1.00u |
| Week 5 | Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints |
New Orleans Saints +2.5 | Lost by 10 | LOST | 52¢ | — | −100% | −1.00u |
| Week 5 | Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers |
Green Bay Packers +1.5 | Won by 24 | WON | 52¢ | — | +92% | +0.92u |
| Week 5 | Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers |
Los Angeles Chargers +3 | Lost by 6 | LOST | 52¢ | — | −100% | −1.00u |
| Week 5 | Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals |
Arizona Cardinals +4.5 | Lost by 24 | LOST | 52¢ | — | −100% | −1.00u |
| Week 4 | Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns |
Cleveland Browns +2.5 | Won by 3 | WON | 52¢ | — | +92% | +0.92u |
| Week 4 | Indianapolis Colts at Washington Commanders |
Washington Commanders +4.5 | Lost by 17 | LOST | 52¢ | — | −100% | −1.00u |
| Week 4 | Arizona Cardinals at New York Giants |
New York Giants +2.5 | Won by 12 | WON | 52¢ | — | +92% | +0.92u |
| Week 4 | Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +2.5 | Lost by 3 | LOST | 52¢ | — | −100% | −1.00u |
| Week 4 | Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles |
Philadelphia Eagles +4.5 | Lost by 4 | WON | 52¢ | — | +92% | +0.92u |
| Week 4 | Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders |
Las Vegas Raiders +3.5 | Lost by 3 | WON | 52¢ | — | +92% | +0.92u |
| Week 4 | Detroit Lions at Carolina Panthers |
Carolina Panthers +3.5 | Won by 6 | WON | 52¢ | — | +92% | +0.92u |
| Week 3 | Carolina Panthers at Cleveland Browns |
Cleveland Browns +2.5 | Won by 3 | WON | 52¢ | — | +92% | +0.92u |
| Week 3 | Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers |
Pittsburgh Steelers +3.5 | Won by 3 | WON | 52¢ | — | +92% | +0.92u |
| Week 3 | Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts |
Indianapolis Colts +1.5 | Won by 2 | WON | 52¢ | — | +92% | +0.92u |
| Week 3 | Kansas City Chiefs at Miami Dolphins |
Miami Dolphins +10 | Lost by 14 | LOST | 52¢ | — | −100% | −1.00u |
| Week 3 | Seattle Seahawks at Washington Commanders |
Washington Commanders +8.5 | Won by 2 | WON | 52¢ | — | +92% | +0.92u |
| Week 3 | Baltimore Ravens at Dallas Cowboys |
Dallas Cowboys +3 | Lost by 3 | PUSH | 52¢ | — | 0% | +0.00u |
| Week 3 | Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears |
Chicago Bears +3 | Won by 20 | WON | 52¢ | — | +92% | +0.92u |
| Week 2 | Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons |
Atlanta Falcons +2.5 | Lost by 31 | LOST | 52¢ | — | −100% | −1.00u |
| Week 2 |  Green Bay Packers at New York Jets |
New York Jets +3.5 | Lost by 3 | WON | 52¢ | — | +92% | +0.92u |
| Week 2 | Philadelphia Eagles at Tennessee Titans |
Tennessee Titans +7 | Lost by 4 | WON | 52¢ | — | +92% | +0.92u |
| Week 2 | Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals |
Arizona Cardinals +3.5 | Lost by 24 | LOST | 52¢ | — | −100% | −1.00u |
| Week 1 | Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis Colts |
Indianapolis Colts +3 | Lost by 18 | LOST | 52¢ | — | −100% | −1.00u |
| Week 1 | Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans |
Houston Texans +1.5 | Lost by 5 | LOST | 52¢ | — | −100% | −1.00u |
| Week 1 | Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers |
Carolina Panthers +3 | Lost by 22 | LOST | 52¢ | — | −100% | −1.00u |
| Week 1 | Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants |
New York Giants +3 | Won by 8 | WON | 52¢ | — | +92% | +0.92u |
The other side
Every graded bet taken the other way, in hindsight- Record
- 16–19–1
- P&L
- −$84
- ROI
- −4.8%
- Bets
- 36
Not part of the record. It's tracked as its own strategy, NFL road favorites →. Estimated at 1 − price: these bets were placed before the other side's price was recorded.
What stands out
Groups with 3+ graded betsSmall samples. Each one opens its card below.
Close calls
Final against the line9 of 36 bets landed within 3 points of the number
Missed by 30The numberBeat by 30
WonLostInside 3 points: 6 won, 2 lost
By spread
SpreadBetsRecordWin rateROIUnits
3 or less
22
10–11–1
48%
−8%
−1.77
3.5–6.5
10
6–4
60%
+15%
+1.54
7–10
4
3–1
75%
+44%
+1.77
10.5 and up
—
—
—
—
Grouped by the size of the spread.
By entry price
Entry priceBetsRecordWin rateROIUnits
Under 45¢
—
—
—
—
45–49¢
—
—
—
—
50–54¢
36
19–16–1
54%
+4%
+1.54
55¢ and up
—
—
—
—
Grouped by the Novig price paid at entry.
By kickoff
KickoffBetsRecordWin rateROIUnits
Saturday before 3 PM
—
—
—
—
Saturday 3 to 7 PM
—
—
—
—
Saturday 7 PM or later
—
—
—
—
Not a Saturday
36
19–16–1
54%
+4%
+1.54
Grouped by kickoff, Eastern time.
By closing line
Closing lineBetsRecordWin rateROIUnits
Beat the close
—
—
—
—
Even with the close
—
—
—
—
Worse than the close
—
—
—
—
No close
36
19–16–1
54%
+4%
+1.54
Grouped by the entry price against Novig's last price before kickoff.
By conference
ConferenceBetsRecordWin rateROIUnits
American Football Conference
19
11–7–1
61%
+18%
+3.15
National Football Conference
24
12–11–1
52%
0%
+0.08
A game counts once for each conference in it.
By team
TeamBetsRecordWin rateROIUnits
Cleveland Browns
3
3–0
100%
+92%
+2.77
Dallas Cowboys
3
2–0–1
100%
+92%
+1.85
Cincinnati Bengals
2
2–0
100%
+92%
+1.85
Las Vegas Raiders
2
2–0
100%
+92%
+1.85
Green Bay Packers
4
3–1
75%
+44%
+1.77
Philadelphia Eagles
4
3–1
75%
+44%
+1.77
Los Angeles Rams
1
1–0
100%
+92%
+0.92
New York Jets
1
1–0
100%
+92%
+0.92
New York Giants
3
2–1
67%
+28%
+0.85
Pittsburgh Steelers
3
2–1
67%
+28%
+0.85
Seattle Seahawks
3
2–1
67%
+28%
+0.85
Baltimore Ravens
3
1–1–1
50%
−4%
−0.08
Buffalo Bills
2
1–1
50%
−4%
−0.08
Denver Broncos
2
1–1
50%
−4%
−0.08
Detroit Lions
2
1–1
50%
−4%
−0.08
Kansas City Chiefs
2
1–1
50%
−4%
−0.08
Miami Dolphins
2
1–1
50%
−4%
−0.08
Tennessee Titans
2
1–1
50%
−4%
−0.08
Washington Commanders
2
1–1
50%
−4%
−0.08
Chicago Bears
4
2–2
50%
−4%
−0.15
Los Angeles Chargers
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
Minnesota Vikings
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
Arizona Cardinals
3
1–2
33%
−36%
−1.08
Houston Texans
3
1–2
33%
−36%
−1.08
Indianapolis Colts
3
1–2
33%
−36%
−1.08
Carolina Panthers
5
2–3
40%
−23%
−1.15
Atlanta Falcons
2
0–2
0%
−100%
−2.00
New Orleans Saints
2
0–2
0%
−100%
−2.00
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2
0–2
0%
−100%
−2.00
A game counts for both teams in it.
How it bets
- 1
Qualifies
The home team is the underdog on the spread, any game.
- 2
Bet
Home team.
Full-game spread, Novig main line.
- 3
Placed
60 minutes before kickoff, at the Novig ask price.
The rule is checked again then. A game that no longer qualifies gets no bet.
- 4
Stake
1 unit, flat. A win pays (1 − price) ÷ price units.
- 5
Graded
Final score from the game page. A game not finished within 7 days voids.
No bet when
Novig has no offer on that side, or its prices are more than 45 minutes old.
League
NFL regular season, on Novig.
History
Live from October 25, 2026. Before then, a paper simulation from the start of the season: the rule run on Novig's lines where Sports Index kept them and DraftKings' closing lines otherwise, with asks estimated, graded on the final score.
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