NFL road favorites
FREETake the road team against the spread whenever it is favored. One unit per game at the Novig price. The other side: NFL home underdogs →
Sports Index
0 following
- Season PnL
- −$196
- Bets
- 37
- Record
- 16–19–1
- ROI
- −11.2%
- CLV
- +0.2¢
- Max drawdown
- −$420
- Streak
- L2
- Open
- 1
NFL road favorites
Account value
Charting
Chart settingsKept in this browser
Measure
Time axis
Game days in order, with the breaks between them shortened so the games keep the width.
Show on the chart
Gain/loss shadingGreen above where it started, red below
No-game breaksHatch the stretches with no games between game days
Week linesA divider where each week starts
Open positionsHow many bets were open, under the chart
Trade markersWhere each bet was placed, and where it settled
SmoothingZoomed out, nearby points share their last value. Off draws every point.
Placed
Open
Won
Lost
BetsHow it's calculated
Week 8
UPCOMING
New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins
QUALIFIES
Week 7
UPCOMING
Pittsburgh Steelers at New Orleans Saints
OPEN−2%
Cleveland Browns at Tennessee Titans
QUALIFIES
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens
QUALIFIES
San Francisco 49ers at Atlanta Falcons
QUALIFIES
Denver Broncos at Arizona Cardinals
QUALIFIES
Los Angeles Rams at Las Vegas Raiders
QUALIFIES
Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles
QUALIFIES
Week 6
−3%
Seattle Seahawks at Denver Broncos
LOST
−100%
Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns
LOST
−100%
Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia Eagles
WON
+94%
Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons
WON
+94%
New Orleans Saints at New York Giants
WON
+94%
Pittsburgh Steelers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
WON
+94%
Buffalo Bills at Las Vegas Raiders
LOST
−100%
Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers
LOST
−100%
Week 5
+29%
Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins
LOST
−100%
Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans
WON
+94%
Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints
WON
+94%
Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers
LOST
−100%
Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers
WON
+94%
Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals
WON
+94%
Week 4
−45%
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns
LOST
−100%
Indianapolis Colts at Washington Commanders
WON
+94%
Arizona Cardinals at New York Giants
LOST
−100%
Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
WON
+94%
Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles
LOST
−100%
Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders
LOST
−100%
Detroit Lions at Carolina Panthers
LOST
−100%
Week 3
−68%
Carolina Panthers at Cleveland Browns
LOST
−100%
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers
LOST
−100%
Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts
LOST
−100%
Kansas City Chiefs at Miami Dolphins
WON
+94%
Seattle Seahawks at Washington Commanders
LOST
−100%
Baltimore Ravens at Dallas Cowboys
PUSH
0%
Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears
LOST
−100%
All bets
| Week | Game | Pick | Margin | Result | Entry | CLV | Return | Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 8 | New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins |
New England Patriots −8.5 | QUALIFIES | 52¢ | — | |||
| Week 7 | Pittsburgh Steelers at New Orleans Saints |
Pittsburgh Steelers −3.5 | OPEN | 44¢ | — | −2% | −0.02u | |
| Week 7 | Cleveland Browns at Tennessee Titans |
Cleveland Browns −1.5 | QUALIFIES | 52¢ | — | |||
| Week 7 | Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens |
Cincinnati Bengals −1.5 | QUALIFIES | 56¢ | — | |||
| Week 7 | San Francisco 49ers at Atlanta Falcons |
San Francisco 49ers −2.5 | QUALIFIES | 52¢ | — | |||
| Week 7 | Denver Broncos at Arizona Cardinals |
Denver Broncos −4.5 | QUALIFIES | 50¢ | — | |||
| Week 7 | Los Angeles Rams at Las Vegas Raiders |
Los Angeles Rams −3.5 | QUALIFIES | 48¢ | — | |||
| Week 7 | Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles |
Dallas Cowboys −4.5 | QUALIFIES | 50¢ | — | |||
| Week 6 | Seattle Seahawks at Denver Broncos |
Seattle Seahawks −3 | Lost by 3 | LOST | 52¢ | — | −100% | −1.00u |
| Week 6 | Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns |
Baltimore Ravens −3 | Lost by 3 | LOST | 52¢ | — | −100% | −1.00u |
| Week 6 | Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia Eagles |
Carolina Panthers −3 | Won by 11 | WON | 52¢ | — | +94% | +0.94u |
| Week 6 | Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons |
Chicago Bears −1.5 | Won by 8 | WON | 52¢ | — | +94% | +0.94u |
| Week 6 | New Orleans Saints at New York Giants |
New Orleans Saints −1.5 | Won by 7 | WON | 52¢ | — | +94% | +0.94u |
| Week 6 | Pittsburgh Steelers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
Pittsburgh Steelers −2.5 | Won by 7 | WON | 52¢ | — | +94% | +0.94u |
| Week 6 | Buffalo Bills at Las Vegas Raiders |
Buffalo Bills −5.5 | Won by 3 | LOST | 52¢ | — | −100% | −1.00u |
| Week 6 | Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers |
Dallas Cowboys −1.5 | Lost by 10 | LOST | 52¢ | — | −100% | −1.00u |
| Week 5 | Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins |
Cincinnati Bengals −7.5 | Won by 7 | LOST | 52¢ | — | −100% | −1.00u |
| Week 5 | Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans |
Houston Texans −6.5 | Won by 23 | WON | 52¢ | — | +94% | +0.94u |
| Week 5 | Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints |
Minnesota Vikings −2.5 | Won by 10 | WON | 52¢ | — | +94% | +0.94u |
| Week 5 | Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers |
Chicago Bears −1.5 | Lost by 24 | LOST | 52¢ | — | −100% | −1.00u |
| Week 5 | Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers |
Denver Broncos −3 | Won by 6 | WON | 52¢ | — | +94% | +0.94u |
| Week 5 | Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals |
Detroit Lions −4.5 | Won by 24 | WON | 52¢ | — | +94% | +0.94u |
| Week 4 | Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns |
Pittsburgh Steelers −2.5 | Lost by 3 | LOST | 52¢ | — | −100% | −1.00u |
| Week 4 | Indianapolis Colts at Washington Commanders |
Indianapolis Colts −4.5 | Won by 17 | WON | 52¢ | — | +94% | +0.94u |
| Week 4 | Arizona Cardinals at New York Giants |
Arizona Cardinals −2.5 | Lost by 12 | LOST | 52¢ | — | −100% | −1.00u |
| Week 4 | Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
Green Bay Packers −2.5 | Won by 3 | WON | 52¢ | — | +94% | +0.94u |
| Week 4 | Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles |
Los Angeles Rams −4.5 | Won by 4 | LOST | 52¢ | — | −100% | −1.00u |
| Week 4 | Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders |
Kansas City Chiefs −3.5 | Won by 3 | LOST | 52¢ | — | −100% | −1.00u |
| Week 4 | Detroit Lions at Carolina Panthers |
Detroit Lions −3.5 | Lost by 6 | LOST | 52¢ | — | −100% | −1.00u |
| Week 3 | Carolina Panthers at Cleveland Browns |
Carolina Panthers −2.5 | Lost by 3 | LOST | 52¢ | — | −100% | −1.00u |
| Week 3 | Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers |
Cincinnati Bengals −3.5 | Lost by 3 | LOST | 52¢ | — | −100% | −1.00u |
| Week 3 | Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts |
Houston Texans −1.5 | Lost by 2 | LOST | 52¢ | — | −100% | −1.00u |
| Week 3 | Kansas City Chiefs at Miami Dolphins |
Kansas City Chiefs −10 | Won by 14 | WON | 52¢ | — | +94% | +0.94u |
| Week 3 | Seattle Seahawks at Washington Commanders |
Seattle Seahawks −8.5 | Lost by 2 | LOST | 52¢ | — | −100% | −1.00u |
| Week 3 | Baltimore Ravens at Dallas Cowboys |
Baltimore Ravens −3 | Won by 3 | PUSH | 52¢ | — | 0% | +0.00u |
| Week 3 | Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears |
Philadelphia Eagles −3 | Lost by 20 | LOST | 52¢ | — | −100% | −1.00u |
| Week 2 | Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons |
Carolina Panthers −2.5 | Won by 31 | WON | 52¢ | — | +94% | +0.94u |
| Week 2 |  Green Bay Packers at New York Jets |
Green Bay Packers −3.5 | Won by 3 | LOST | 52¢ | — | −100% | −1.00u |
| Week 2 | Philadelphia Eagles at Tennessee Titans |
Philadelphia Eagles −7 | Won by 4 | LOST | 52¢ | — | −100% | −1.00u |
| Week 2 | Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals |
Seattle Seahawks −3.5 | Won by 24 | WON | 52¢ | — | +94% | +0.94u |
| Week 1 | Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis Colts |
Baltimore Ravens −3 | Won by 18 | WON | 52¢ | — | +94% | +0.94u |
| Week 1 | Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans |
Buffalo Bills −1.5 | Won by 5 | WON | 52¢ | — | +94% | +0.94u |
| Week 1 | Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers |
Chicago Bears −3 | Won by 22 | WON | 52¢ | — | +94% | +0.94u |
| Week 1 | Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants |
Dallas Cowboys −3 | Lost by 8 | LOST | 52¢ | — | −100% | −1.00u |
The other side
Every graded bet taken the other way, in hindsight- Record
- 19–16–1
- P&L
- +$209
- ROI
- +11.9%
- Bets
- 36
Not part of the record. It's tracked as its own strategy, NFL home underdogs →. Estimated at 1 − price: these bets were placed before the other side's price was recorded.
What stands out
Groups with 3+ graded betsSmall samples. Each one opens its card below.
Close calls
Final against the line9 of 36 bets landed within 3 points of the number
Missed by 30The numberBeat by 30
WonLostInside 3 points: 2 won, 6 lost
By spread
SpreadBetsRecordWin rateROIUnits
3 or less
22
11–10–1
52%
+2%
+0.36
3.5–6.5
10
4–6
40%
−22%
−2.23
7–10
4
1–3
25%
−52%
−2.06
10.5 and up
—
—
—
—
Grouped by the size of the spread.
By entry price
Entry priceBetsRecordWin rateROIUnits
Under 45¢
—
—
—
—
45–49¢
—
—
—
—
50–54¢
36
16–19–1
46%
−11%
−3.93
55¢ and up
—
—
—
—
Grouped by the Novig price paid at entry.
By kickoff
KickoffBetsRecordWin rateROIUnits
Saturday before 3 PM
—
—
—
—
Saturday 3 to 7 PM
—
—
—
—
Saturday 7 PM or later
—
—
—
—
Not a Saturday
36
16–19–1
46%
−11%
−3.93
Grouped by kickoff, Eastern time.
By closing line
Closing lineBetsRecordWin rateROIUnits
Beat the close
—
—
—
—
Even with the close
—
—
—
—
Worse than the close
—
—
—
—
No close
36
16–19–1
46%
−11%
−3.93
Grouped by the entry price against Novig's last price before kickoff.
By conference
ConferenceBetsRecordWin rateROIUnits
National Football Conference
24
11–12–1
48%
−7%
−1.64
American Football Conference
19
7–11–1
39%
−24%
−4.41
A game counts once for each conference in it.
By team
TeamBetsRecordWin rateROIUnits
Atlanta Falcons
2
2–0
100%
+94%
+1.88
New Orleans Saints
2
2–0
100%
+94%
+1.88
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2
2–0
100%
+94%
+1.88
Los Angeles Chargers
1
1–0
100%
+94%
+0.94
Minnesota Vikings
1
1–0
100%
+94%
+0.94
Arizona Cardinals
3
2–1
67%
+29%
+0.88
Houston Texans
3
2–1
67%
+29%
+0.88
Indianapolis Colts
3
2–1
67%
+29%
+0.88
Carolina Panthers
5
3–2
60%
+17%
+0.83
Baltimore Ravens
3
1–1–1
50%
−3%
−0.06
Buffalo Bills
2
1–1
50%
−3%
−0.06
Denver Broncos
2
1–1
50%
−3%
−0.06
Detroit Lions
2
1–1
50%
−3%
−0.06
Kansas City Chiefs
2
1–1
50%
−3%
−0.06
Miami Dolphins
2
1–1
50%
−3%
−0.06
Tennessee Titans
2
1–1
50%
−3%
−0.06
Washington Commanders
2
1–1
50%
−3%
−0.06
Chicago Bears
4
2–2
50%
−3%
−0.12
Los Angeles Rams
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
New York Jets
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
New York Giants
3
1–2
33%
−35%
−1.06
Pittsburgh Steelers
3
1–2
33%
−35%
−1.06
Seattle Seahawks
3
1–2
33%
−35%
−1.06
Dallas Cowboys
3
0–2–1
0%
−100%
−2.00
Cincinnati Bengals
2
0–2
0%
−100%
−2.00
Las Vegas Raiders
2
0–2
0%
−100%
−2.00
Green Bay Packers
4
1–3
25%
−52%
−2.06
Philadelphia Eagles
4
1–3
25%
−52%
−2.06
Cleveland Browns
3
0–3
0%
−100%
−3.00
A game counts for both teams in it.
How it bets
- 1
Qualifies
The home team is the underdog on the spread, any game.
- 2
Bet
Road team.
Full-game spread, Novig main line.
- 3
Placed
60 minutes before kickoff, at the Novig ask price.
The rule is checked again then. A game that no longer qualifies gets no bet.
- 4
Stake
1 unit, flat. A win pays (1 − price) ÷ price units.
- 5
Graded
Final score from the game page. A game not finished within 7 days voids.
No bet when
Novig has no offer on that side, or its prices are more than 45 minutes old.
League
NFL regular season, on Novig.
History
Live from October 25, 2026. Before then, a paper simulation from the start of the season: the rule run on Novig's lines where Sports Index kept them and DraftKings' closing lines otherwise, with asks estimated, graded on the final score.
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